Edge
169 model +EV picksProps where the model's probability beats the price, ranked by the model's estimated expected value. These are model estimates, not proven edges: in 2025-26 testing on held-out games at real odds, the model's picks did not beat the books (LOCK/PLAY returned about −5%).
| Player | Pick | Odds | Model % | Market % | Model EV | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲1.5 STL | +130 | 53% | 43% | +22.9% | FADE | |
Evan MobleyCLE | ▲1.5 3PMBooks overprice -18% | +134 | 52% | 43% | +21.8% | FADE |
| ▲1.5 3PM | +132 | 52% | 43% | +20.8% | FADE | |
| ▲2.5 3PM | +132 | 52% | 43% | +20.8% | FADE | |
| ▼2.5 REB | +126 | 53% | 44% | +20.3% | FADE | |
| ▲1.5 STL | -102 | 60% | 50% | +19.6% | LOCK | |
| ▲2.5 ASTBooks overprice -20% | +128 | 52% | 44% | +18.4% | FADE | |
| ▼4.5 AST | -102 | 59% | 50% | +17% | PLAY | |
Jaylen BrownPHI | ▲1.5 3PM | +124 | 52% | 45% | +16.6% | FADE |
| ▼1.5 3PMBooks overprice -13% | +124 | 52% | 45% | +16.6% | FADE | |
Josh HartNYK | ▲1.5 3PMBooks overprice -14% | +124 | 52% | 45% | +16.6% | FADE |
| ▲3.5 3PM | +148 | 47% | 40% | +16.4% | FADE | |
Bam AdebayoMIA | ▲1.5 STLBooks overprice -17% | -108 | 60% | 52% | +16.3% | LOCK |
| ▼4.5 AST | +114 | 54% | 47% | +15.5% | FADE | |
| ▲2.5 STL | +118 | 53% | 46% | +15.4% | FADE | |
Jaylen BrownPHI | ▲3.5 ASTBooks underprice +7% | -105 | 59% | 51% | +15.4% | PLAY |
| ▼3.5 AST | +122 | 52% | 45% | +15.2% | FADE | |
| ▲2.5 3PM | +145 | 47% | 41% | +15% | FADE | |
Marcus SmartHOU | ▲2.5 REB | +116 | 53% | 46% | +15% | FADE |
Luka DoncicLAL | ▲4.5 3PMBooks underprice +12% | +112 | 54% | 47% | +14.6% | FADE |
| ▲2.5 REB | +155 | 45% | 39% | +14.5% | FADE | |
Paul GeorgeBOS | ▲1.5 STL | -114 | 60% | 53% | +13.3% | LOCK |
Jaxson HayesUTA | ▲1.5 BLK | +130 | 49% | 43% | +13.1% | FADE |
Alex SarrWAS | ▼0.5 3PM | +111 | 53% | 47% | +12.9% | FADE |
| ▼1.5 AST | +134 | 48% | 43% | +12.6% | FADE | |
Kyle KuzmaMIL | ▼0.5 3PMBooks underprice +5% | +172 | 41% | 37% | +12.4% | FADE |
Nolan TraoreBKN | ▼3.5 AST | +108 | 54% | 48% | +12.3% | FADE |
Jared McCainOKC | ▼2.5 REB | +134 | 48% | 43% | +12.1% | FADE |
Alex SarrWAS | ▲1.5 BLKBooks underprice +20% | +194 | 38% | 34% | +11.8% | FADE |
| ▲2.5 AST | +121 | 50% | 45% | +11.3% | FADE |
How this works:Model % is the historical hit rate for props with this confidence score; Market % is the probability implied by the odds (vig included). Model EV is what the pick would return per dollar if the model % were right. The model's score doesn't account for price, so picks where it beats the market by more than 10 points are hidden as unreliable (23 tonight).
Caution:on 2025-26 data the market's own odds predicted outcomes slightly better than the model, so treat this as a research list rather than a betting strategy.